ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 3:2series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 3:2
M80loss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Heroic
Earth Spiritsignature
4nalog · 27 games
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 26 games
Invokeroften banned
4nalog · 16 games
Lionsignature
Scofield · 16 games
Snapfiresignature
Scofield · 16 games
Tusksignature
Scofield · 16 games
Marsoften banned
Davai · 15 games
Muertasignature
Scofield · 15 games
M80
Batrideroften banned
Elmisho · 28 games
Clockwerksignature
MoOz · 21 game
Snapfire
Elmisho · 20 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
K1 · 19 games
Phoenixoften banned
MoOz · 19 games
Doomoften banned
ILICH- · 18 games
Enchantressoften banned
MoOz · 18 games
Dark Willow
Elmisho · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
482 picks · 407 bans
Clockwerk
449 picks · 567 bans
Batrider
420 picks · 524 bans
Lion
412 picks · 223 bans
Gyrocopter
408 picks · 684 bans
Phoenix
402 picks · 450 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 593 bans
Beastmaster
355 picks · 920 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 46%
Hero pool strength57% Heroic
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total77% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:19
Heroic 68%M80 32%
The model gave 68% on Heroic — the game was taken by M80 in 44:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MagnusYuma
Troll WarlordK1
Tiny4nalog
BeastmasterILICH-
DoomWisper
PangolierDarkMago
ChenKJ
ClockwerkElmisho
SnapfireScofield
PhoenixMoOz
Game 2prediction missed8:21
Heroic 66%M80 34%
The model gave 66% on Heroic — the game was taken by M80 in 26:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MeepoYuma
Phantom AssassinK1
BristlebackWisper
TidehunterILICH-
Earth Spirit4nalog
MarsDarkMago
MuertaScofield
PhoenixMoOz
LichKJ
LionElmisho
Game 3prediction correct48:25
Heroic 66%M80 34%
The model gave 66% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 39:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackYuma
Storm SpiritDarkMago
MagnusWisper
BeastmasterILICH-
Earth Spirit4nalog
SlarkK1
Shadow DemonKJ
ClockwerkElmisho
Dark WillowScofield
PugnaMoOz
Game 4prediction correct40:18
Heroic 66%M80 34%
The model gave 66% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 38:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawWisper
GyrocopterK1
SpectreYuma
MarsDarkMago
Ember Spirit4nalog
DoomILICH-
LionScofield
ClockwerkMoOz
Shadow DemonKJ
GrimstrokeElmisho
Game 5prediction correct42:27
Heroic 64%M80 36%
The model gave 64% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 53:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SpectreYuma
Phantom AssassinK1
Ember Spirit4nalog
PangolierDarkMago
MagnusWisper
Night StalkerILICH-
GyrocopterKJ
EnchantressMoOz
Dark WillowScofield
BatriderElmisho
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 77%
Series resultHeroic 3:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 5