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PGL Wallachia 2024 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Scofield · 24 games
46%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Scofield · 21 game
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
KJ · 18 games
39%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
K1 · 16 games
44%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Scofield · 16 games
56%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Scofield · 14 games
64%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
KJ · 13 games
54%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Davai · 13 games
54%

Natus Vincere

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Zayac · 19 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 15 games
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Nefrit · 14 games
64%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Nefrit · 13 games
69%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 12 games
42%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Yuragi · 12 games
58%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Nefrit · 10 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Sancity · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
342 picks · 281 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
341 picks · 254 bans
45%
Pangolier
Pangolier
331 picks · 439 bans
47%
Enchantress
Enchantress
307 picks · 518 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
306 picks · 346 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
305 picks · 299 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
303 picks · 481 bans
46%
Windranger
Windranger
303 picks · 433 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 47%
Hero pool strength54% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:5
Heroic 52%Natus Vincere 48%
The model gave 52% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 27:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterParker
48% · 140 games40% · 30 games
BroodmotherYuragi
Broodmother
Mars
MarsDavai
53% · 155 games63% · 77 games
Invokerbzm
Invoker
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit4nalog
47% · 74 games44% · 41 game
VisageBOOM
Visage
Omniknight
OmniknightKJ
50% · 58 games45% · 171 game
EnchantressPuppey
Enchantress
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageScofield
40% · 23 games55% · 131 game
TuskZayac
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed11:33
Heroic 53%Natus Vincere 47%
The model gave 53% on Heroic — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 25:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaParker
56% · 279 games38% · 9 games
Drow RangerYuragi
Drow Ranger
Invoker
Invoker4nalog
50% · 117 games50% · 181 game
TimbersawBOOM
Timbersaw
Mars
MarsDavai
57% · 211 games47% · 297 games
Pangolierbzm
Pangolier
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageScofield
49% · 43 games48% · 136 games
Dark WillowZayac
Dark Willow
Jakiro
JakiroKJ
46% · 126 games48% · 153 games
ClockwerkPuppey
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct36:21
Heroic 54%Natus Vincere 46%
The model gave 54% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 35:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendParker
51% · 65 games46% · 114 games
Void Spiritbzm
Void Spirit
Invoker
Invoker4nalog
53% · 110 games47% · 133 games
Templar AssassinYuragi
Templar Assassin
Mars
MarsDavai
55% · 219 games52% · 209 games
DoomBOOM
Doom
Clockwerk
ClockwerkScofield
52% · 180 games49% · 295 games
BatriderZayac
Batrider
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritKJ
45% · 185 games44% · 8 games
LichPuppey
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 53%
Series resultHeroic 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3