DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicloss 0:2series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Pipsqueak+4win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Heroic
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 25 games
Tusk
Scofield · 24 games
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 20 games
Puckoften banned
4nalog · 20 games
Abaddonoften banned
Yuma · 19 games
Axe
Davai · 18 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Wisper · 18 games
Bane
KJ · 17 games
Pipsqueak+4
Warlock
Kidaro · 35 games
Marsoften banned
Nande · 29 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 26 games
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 24 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 23 games
Batridersignature
Ekki · 20 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 19 games
Tusk
Ekki · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
776 picks · 356 bans
Hoodwink
593 picks · 301 bans
Jakiro
555 picks · 447 bans
Disruptor
550 picks · 549 bans
Dragon Knight
544 picks · 664 bans
Tusk
511 picks · 305 bans
Mars
491 picks · 747 bans
Centaur Warrunner
479 picks · 540 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 58%
Hero pool strength51% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:28
Heroic 69%Pipsqueak+4 31%
The model gave 69% on Heroic — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 33:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MarciYuma
JuggernautNande
Night StalkerDavai
Storm SpiritCopy
Dragon KnightWisper
UnderlordPalantimos
WarlockKJ
LichKidaro
TuskScofield
Shadow DemonEkki
Game 2prediction missed13:35
Heroic 70%Pipsqueak+4 30%
The model gave 70% on Heroic — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 41:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritWisper
KezNande
MarciYuma
PangolierCopy
MarsDavai
UnderlordPalantimos
ChenKJ
JakiroEkki
Skywrath MageScofield
WarlockKidaro
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 82%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2