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BLAST Slam VI · BO1
result vs prediction
Heroicloss 0:1
series probability
14%86%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Tundra Esportswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 30 games
43%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
KJ · 28 games
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 23 games
70%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 20 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 20 games
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 19 games
84%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Wisper · 18 games
67%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Yuma · 18 games
56%

Tundra Esports

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 32 games
56%
Axe
Axesignature
33 · 25 games
60%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 22 games
73%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 22 games
82%
Pugna
Pugna
Whitemon · 21 game
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 19 games
68%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Pure~ · 18 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 17 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
606 picks · 938 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
537 picks · 435 bans
46%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
492 picks · 646 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
483 picks · 655 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
443 picks · 953 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
395 picks · 655 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
393 picks · 529 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
379 picks · 233 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 71%
Hero pool strength53% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 6
Model total86% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:26
Heroic 25%Tundra Esports 75%
The model gave 75% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 47:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWisper
45% · 162 games50% · 126 games
Invokerbzm
Invoker
Abaddon
AbaddonYuma
48% · 205 games57% · 80 games
ClinkzPure~
Clinkz
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritTaiLung
46% · 178 games51% · 350 games
Batrider33
Batrider
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightThiolicor
44% · 53 games52% · 72 games
Faceless VoidAri
Faceless Void
Disruptor
DisruptorKJ
50% · 235 games57% · 205 games
BaneWhitemon
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 86%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1