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PGL Wallachia Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicloss 1:2
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Wildcard Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Magnus
Magnussignature
Wisper · 25 games
64%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 24 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
4nalog · 20 games
55%
Muerta
Muerta
Scofield · 20 games
55%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
KJ · 19 games
74%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Scofield · 18 games
61%
Jakiro
Jakiro
KJ · 17 games
29%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Scofield · 16 games
63%

Wildcard Gaming

Magnus
Magnussignature
Fayde · 25 games
64%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 24 games
38%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bignum · 22 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
RCY · 22 games
55%
Muerta
Muerta
Bignum · 21 game
48%
Puck
Pucksignature
RCY · 20 games
70%
Chen
Chensignature
Speeed · 19 games
84%
Warlock
Warlock
Speeed · 17 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
570 picks · 644 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
490 picks · 249 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
472 picks · 423 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
408 picks · 858 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
392 picks · 449 bans
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
384 picks · 565 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
379 picks · 338 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
354 picks · 834 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Heroic
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:33
Heroic 58%Wildcard Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Heroic — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 49:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaWisper
47% · 136 games50% · 61 game
Drow RangerYamSun
Drow Ranger
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit4nalog
51% · 236 games54% · 388 games
Storm SpiritRCY
Storm Spirit
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYuma
48% · 186 games56% · 165 games
EnigmaFayde
Enigma
Rubick
RubickScofield
46% · 124 games52% · 92 games
UndyingSpeeed
Undying
Tusk
TuskKJ
44% · 319 games51% · 295 games
Dark WillowBignum
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct23:4
Heroic 60%Wildcard Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 31:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenYuma
48% · 200 games48% · 109 games
RazorYamSun
Razor
Beastmaster
Beastmaster4nalog
51% · 277 games54% · 288 games
Dark SeerFayde
Dark Seer
Magnus
MagnusWisper
49% · 152 games52% · 109 games
Void SpiritRCY
Void Spirit
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanScofield
52% · 157 games54% · 131 game
Naga SirenSpeeed
Naga Siren
Phoenix
PhoenixKJ
44% · 230 games48% · 379 games
TuskBignum
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed23:33
Heroic 63%Wildcard Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on Heroic — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 36:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingYuma
58% · 270 games46% · 267 games
BatriderRCY
Batrider
Magnus
MagnusWisper
55% · 286 games42% · 237 games
TerrorbladeYamSun
Terrorblade
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light4nalog
63% · 126 games44% · 37 games
AxeFayde
Axe
Chen
ChenKJ
58% · 142 games43% · 261 game
JakiroSpeeed
Jakiro
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanScofield
53% · 246 games39% · 268 games
TuskBignum
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 69%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3