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DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0
series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 2:0
x5 Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 24 games
42%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 21 game
67%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Yuma · 16 games
44%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 16 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Yuma · 16 games
81%
Bane
Bane
KJ · 15 games
47%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Wisper · 15 games
47%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Wisper · 15 games
47%

x5 Gaming

Sniper
Sniperoften banned
Pamplona · 5 games
40%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Hermit · 4 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Hermit · 2 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
mini-` · 1 game
0%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Pamplona · 1 game
100%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Hermit · 1 game
0%
Muerta
Muerta
mini-` · 1 game
0%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Pamplona · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
562 picks · 726 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
511 picks · 354 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
486 picks · 657 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
449 picks · 549 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
394 picks · 134 bans
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
385 picks · 184 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
374 picks · 529 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
372 picks · 515 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total93% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:10
Heroic 81%x5 Gaming 19%
The model gave 81% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 20:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaYuma
54% · 171 game44% · 391 game
MarsHermit
Mars
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritWisper
52% · 227 games49% · 83 games
SniperPamplona
Sniper
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDavai
51% · 228 games48% · 602 games
TuskJimmyCoff666
Tusk
Jakiro
JakiroThiolicor
55% · 270 games
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonKJ
52% · 180 games
Game 2prediction correct
Heroic 93%x5 Gaming 7%
The model gave 93% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic.
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 93%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2