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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:1
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yakult Brothersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 22 games
55%
Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 19 games
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 18 games
78%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 18 games
72%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
4nalog · 16 games
44%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Wisper · 14 games
71%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Scofield · 14 games
43%
Puck
Puckoften banned
4nalog · 14 games
57%

Yakult Brothers

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 34 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Emo · 21 game
48%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 20 games
75%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 18 games
50%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Oli · 18 games
61%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
zeal · 17 games
65%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Emo · 16 games
31%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
flyfly · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
641 picks · 317 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
554 picks · 564 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
408 picks · 1147 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
402 picks · 213 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
376 picks · 624 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
360 picks · 275 bans
50%
Pugna
Pugna
357 picks · 397 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
356 picks · 161 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 43%
Hero pool strength53% Heroic
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total87% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:21
Heroic 76%Yakult Brothers 24%
The model gave 76% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 44:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidYuma
60% · 59 games46% · 160 games
Shadow FiendEmo
Shadow Fiend
Puck
PuckWisper
51% · 331 game46% · 74 games
Night Stalkerflyfly
Night Stalker
Timbersaw
TimbersawDavai
57% · 162 games46% · 284 games
Batriderzeal
Batrider
Hoodwink
HoodwinkScofield
48% · 234 games44% · 209 games
JakiroBoBoKa
Jakiro
Bane
BaneKJ
56% · 132 games47% · 191 game
ClockwerkPoloson
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed24:34
Heroic 75%Yakult Brothers 25%
The model gave 75% on Heroic — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 39:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYuma
53% · 190 games45% · 307 games
Dragon Knightflyfly
Dragon Knight
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWisper
53% · 292 games48% · 156 games
Timbersawzeal
Timbersaw
Night Stalker
Night StalkerDavai
44% · 98 games48% · 149 games
InvokerEmo
Invoker
Jakiro
JakiroScofield
55% · 188 games52% · 260 games
PhoenixPoloson
Phoenix
Silencer
SilencerKJ
49% · 123 games58% · 19 games
Spirit BreakerBoBoKa
Spirit Breaker
Game 3prediction correct42:17
Heroic 75%Yakult Brothers 25%
The model gave 75% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 39:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaYuma
56% · 198 games45% · 74 games
Troll Warlordflyfly
Troll Warlord
Mars
MarsWisper
55% · 229 games51% · 143 games
Timbersawzeal
Timbersaw
Doom
DoomDavai
49% · 170 games52% · 116 games
SlardarEmo
Slardar
Jakiro
JakiroKJ
45% · 253 games51% · 330 games
TuskBoBoKa
Tusk
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinScofield
49% · 62 games46% · 249 games
SnapfirePoloson
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 87%
Series resultHeroic 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3