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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 14 · BO3
result vs prediction
HFwin 2:0
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
EZ KATKAloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HF

Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Cloud · 16 games
63%
Mirana
Miranasignature
ArrOw · 14 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 13 games
54%
Puck
Pucksignature
hAze · 13 games
62%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 12 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 12 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 10 games
60%
Io
Iosignature
Kaori · 10 games
80%

EZ KATKA

Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Lefitan · 6 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Rvze · 5 games
40%
Tiny
Tiny
Lefitan · 5 games
40%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Wuiter · 4 games
50%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Lefitan · 4 games
25%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Wuiter · 4 games
0%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Lukas · 4 games
50%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Wuiter · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
716 picks · 529 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
509 picks · 1009 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
440 picks · 556 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
414 picks · 748 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
367 picks · 194 bans
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
347 picks · 364 bans
56%
Zeus
Zeus
311 picks · 350 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
301 picks · 610 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 47%
Hero pool strength58% HF
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% HF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:10
HF 55%EZ KATKA 45%
The model gave 55% on HF — the game was taken by HF in 24:06.
Game 2prediction correct18:18
HF 55%EZ KATKA 45%
The model gave 55% on HF — the game was taken by HF in 38:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteHF · 55%
Series resultHF 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2