Winline Insight · BO3
result vs prediction
HFloss 0:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MooN teamwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HF
Sand Kingsignature
Cloud · 14 games
Miranasignature
ArrOw · 13 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 12 games
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 12 games
Bane
Malady · 8 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Kaori · 8 games
Iosignature
Kaori · 7 games
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 7 games
MooN team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
497 picks · 446 bans
Mars
490 picks · 687 bans
Bane
466 picks · 286 bans
Dragon Knight
436 picks · 519 bans
Sand King
414 picks · 565 bans
Storm Spirit
402 picks · 647 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 609 bans
Grimstroke
356 picks · 311 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 47%
Hero pool strength59% HF
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total58% HF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:36
HF 58%MooN team 42%
The model gave 58% on HF — the game was taken by MooN team in 38:13.
Game 2prediction missed54:60
HF 58%MooN team 42%
The model gave 58% on HF — the game was taken by MooN team in 1:03:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteHF · 58%
Series resultMooN team 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2