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European Pro League Season 38 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hive-loss 0:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
VP.Prodigywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hive-

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
slimeyao · 6 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
slimeyao · 5 games
20%
Rubick
Rubick
slimeyao · 5 games
0%
Tiny
Tiny
byun · 5 games
40%
Enchantress
Enchantress
kur0patbI4 · 4 games
25%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
kur0patbI4 · 4 games
25%
Chen
Chenoften banned
kur0patbI4 · 3 games
67%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
byun · 2 games
100%

VP.Prodigy

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
JANTER · 28 games
64%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 26 games
38%
Tiny
Tiny
raregods · 23 games
48%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
raregods · 17 games
59%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Katsura · 17 games
59%
Disruptor
Disruptor
JANTER · 16 games
44%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
takizawa · 16 games
19%
Clinkz
Clinkzsignature
cutie · 15 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
608 picks · 378 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
499 picks · 276 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
495 picks · 583 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
470 picks · 393 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
411 picks · 573 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
349 picks · 941 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
337 picks · 878 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
335 picks · 283 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 41%
Hero pool strength57% VP.Prodigy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% VP.Prodigy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Hive- 29%VP.Prodigy 71%
The model gave 71% on VP.Prodigy — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy.
Game 2prediction correct
Hive- 29%VP.Prodigy 71%
The model gave 71% on VP.Prodigy — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy.
Model check result
Model favoriteVP.Prodigy · 71%
Series resultVP.Prodigy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2