The International 2022 · BO1
result vs prediction
Hokoriloss 0:1series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:1
beastcoastwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
529 picks · 398 bans
Marci
482 picks · 713 bans
Undying
311 picks · 518 bans
Death Prophet
307 picks · 473 bans
Puck
290 picks · 682 bans
Dawnbreaker
285 picks · 387 bans
Enigma
270 picks · 865 bans
Pangolier
264 picks · 368 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 37%
Hero pool strength50% Hokori
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total58% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:29
Hokori 42%beastcoast 58%
The model gave 58% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 36:26.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 58%
Series resultbeastcoast 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1