Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Hokoriwin 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Infinity Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Infinity Esports
Snapfire
Kiri · 15 games
Rubick
Genek · 14 games
Tiny
Genek · 10 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Frank · 9 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Frank · 9 games
Tusk
Genek · 9 games
Disruptor
Prada · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
781 picks · 587 bans
Disruptor
545 picks · 438 bans
Tiny
447 picks · 382 bans
Nature's Prophet
420 picks · 698 bans
Beastmaster
412 picks · 961 bans
Undying
410 picks · 591 bans
Snapfire
393 picks · 293 bans
Mirana
392 picks · 216 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 45%
Hero pool strength53% Hokori
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:9
Hokori 63%Infinity Esports 37%
The model gave 63% on Hokori — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 32:43.
Game 2prediction missed8:20
Hokori 63%Infinity Esports 37%
The model gave 63% on Hokori — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 31:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 63%
Series resultHokori 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2