Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Hokoriwin 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Mad Kingsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Mad Kings
Rubick
Gardick · 21 game
Ember Spiritsignature
4nalog · 19 games
Disruptor
Gardick · 18 games
Clockwerksignature
Gardick · 17 games
Tiny
Elmisho · 17 games
Miranasignature
Thiolicor · 15 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 13 games
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
699 picks · 598 bans
Disruptor
557 picks · 491 bans
Beastmaster
456 picks · 1103 bans
Doom
447 picks · 805 bans
Ember Spirit
405 picks · 1039 bans
Pangolier
384 picks · 836 bans
Mirana
382 picks · 208 bans
Enchantress
381 picks · 546 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 73%
Hero pool strength54% Mad Kings
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total54% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed5:18
Hokori 54%Mad Kings 46%
The model gave 54% on Hokori — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 22:17.
Game 2prediction missed32:23
Hokori 54%Mad Kings 46%
The model gave 54% on Hokori — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 41:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 54%
Series resultHokori 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2