Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Hokoriwin 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SG e-sportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
388 picks · 279 bans
Mars
374 picks · 541 bans
Snapfire
311 picks · 186 bans
Weaver
303 picks · 713 bans
Queen of Pain
276 picks · 341 bans
Ember Spirit
233 picks · 310 bans
Kunkka
233 picks · 393 bans
Disruptor
231 picks · 157 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 20%
Hero pool strength50% Hokori
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:29
Hokori 65%SG e-sports 35%
The model gave 65% on Hokori — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 43:49.
Game 2prediction missed28:17
Hokori 65%SG e-sports 35%
The model gave 65% on Hokori — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 28:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 65%
Series resultHokori 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2