Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Hokoriloss 1:2series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:2
SG e-sportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
469 picks · 653 bans
Tiny
464 picks · 441 bans
Bane
452 picks · 274 bans
Sand King
413 picks · 562 bans
Dragon Knight
406 picks · 485 bans
Storm Spirit
400 picks · 652 bans
Pangolier
367 picks · 561 bans
Grimstroke
341 picks · 295 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 64%
Hero pool strength50% Hokori
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total67% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:44
Hokori 67%SG e-sports 33%
The model gave 67% on Hokori — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 52:12.
Game 2prediction missed22:34
Hokori 67%SG e-sports 33%
The model gave 67% on Hokori — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 33:52.
Game 3prediction missed33:19
Hokori 67%SG e-sports 33%
The model gave 67% on Hokori — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 34:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 67%
Series resultSG e-sports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3