Thunderpick Bitcoin Series · BO3
result vs prediction
Hokoriwin 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team DogChamploss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Team DogChamp
Bane
Bloody Nine · 18 games
Marsoften banned
lukiluki · 13 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
yarintheslayer · 12 games
Tiny
Ryoya · 11 games
Medusaoften banned
StoneBank · 8 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
yarintheslayer · 8 games
Sand Kingoften banned
lukiluki · 7 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Bloody Nine · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
711 picks · 524 bans
Puck
513 picks · 995 bans
Dawnbreaker
432 picks · 545 bans
Marci
402 picks · 733 bans
Snapfire
373 picks · 196 bans
Winter Wyvern
341 picks · 349 bans
Zeus
304 picks · 341 bans
Razor
297 picks · 609 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% Hokori
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total60% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Hokori 60%Team DogChamp 40%
The model gave 60% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori.
Game 2prediction correct
Hokori 60%Team DogChamp 40%
The model gave 60% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori.
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 60%
Series resultHokori 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2