European Pro League Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hokoriloss 1:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:2
YNGBLDwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hokori
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 4 games
Medusaoften banned
Lumière · 4 games
Muerta
Genek · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Genek · 3 games
Pugnaoften banned
Gardick · 3 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Vitaly · 3 games
Tuskoften banned
Gardick · 3 games
Lion
Genek · 2 games
YNGBLD
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
485 picks · 669 bans
Clockwerk
423 picks · 496 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 538 bans
Dark Willow
358 picks · 184 bans
Luna
330 picks · 437 bans
Batrider
328 picks · 349 bans
Enchantress
315 picks · 596 bans
Dragon Knight
310 picks · 557 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% Hokori
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Hokori 64%YNGBLD 36%
The model gave 64% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori.
Game 2prediction missed
Hokori 64%YNGBLD 36%
The model gave 64% on Hokori — the game was taken by YNGBLD.
Game 3prediction missed
Hokori 64%YNGBLD 36%
The model gave 64% on Hokori — the game was taken by YNGBLD.
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 64%
Series resultYNGBLD 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3