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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Holy Grailwin 2:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Limitloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Holy Grail

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
57%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Tzy · 7 games
29%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
43%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
omoxiloyi · 6 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
omoxiloyi · 5 games
20%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
GaN- · 5 games
80%
Snapfire
Snapfire
omoxiloyi · 4 games
25%

Limit

Tusk
Tusk
Yds · 17 games
59%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Srf · 10 games
60%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Victoria · 9 games
44%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Srf · 8 games
88%
Rubick
Rubick
cxk · 8 games
0%
Tiny
Tiny
Yds · 7 games
57%
Lich
Lichsignature
Victoria · 6 games
100%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Victoria · 6 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
752 picks · 611 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
612 picks · 534 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
552 picks · 1090 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
548 picks · 1334 bans
58%
Techies
Techies
478 picks · 534 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
469 picks · 962 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
465 picks · 1156 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
450 picks · 644 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 17%
Hero pool strength52% Limit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Holy Grail
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:27
Holy Grail 72%Limit 28%
The model gave 72% on Holy Grail — the game was taken by Holy Grail in 56:55.
Game 2prediction correct20:14
Holy Grail 72%Limit 28%
The model gave 72% on Holy Grail — the game was taken by Holy Grail in 31:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteHoly Grail · 72%
Series resultHoly Grail 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2