Hong shi zhang zui vs Cloud Rising — prediction DS2ОК · Dota 2

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DreamLeague Season 27. Открытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

HSHong shi zhang zuiwin 2:0

series probability

72%28%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Cloud Risingloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hong shi zhang zui

No games played over 6 months.

Cloud Rising

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Shadow Shaman

298 picks · 192 bans

49%

Puck

295 picks · 686 bans

51%

Dark Willow

260 picks · 110 bans

47%

Dawnbreaker

258 picks · 639 bans

48%

Tusk

258 picks · 258 bans

46%

Nature's Prophet

251 picks · 532 bans

58%

Disruptor

247 picks · 212 bans

47%

Marci

245 picks · 564 bans

55%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength50% Hong shi zhang zui

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total72% Hong shi zhang zui

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct26:12

Hong shi zhang zui 60%Cloud Rising 40%

The model gave 60% on Hong shi zhang zui — the game was taken by Hong shi zhang zui in 36:27.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo