BLAST Slam IV. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionHSHong shi zhang zuiloss 0:2
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Roar Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hong shi zhang zui
Snapfiresignature
TK · 10 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
BEYOND · 7 games
Hoodwinksignature
TK · 6 games
Disruptor
Undyne_ · 5 games
Lycanoften banned
BEYOND · 5 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Undyne_ · 4 games
Bane
Undyne_ · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
BEYOND · 3 games
Roar Gaming
Marssignature
生死 · 6 games
Snapfire
CatYou · 5 games
Abaddonoften banned
Ulu · 4 games
Disruptor
RedPanda · 4 games
Earthshakeroften banned
生死 · 4 games
Leshrac
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
Shadow Demon
CatYou · 4 games
Clockwerk
RedPanda · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
356 picks · 325 bans
Puck
333 picks · 834 bans
Snapfire
307 picks · 155 bans
Pugna
289 picks · 327 bans
Dawnbreaker
280 picks · 779 bans
Tusk
278 picks · 247 bans
Warlock
272 picks · 124 bans
Shadow Shaman
267 picks · 171 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 62%
Hero pool strength54% Hong shi zhang zui
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Hong shi zhang zui
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:29
Hong shi zhang zui 60%Roar Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Hong shi zhang zui — the game was taken by Roar Gaming in 32:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LycanBEYOND
GyrocopterUlu
Anti-Magelou
EarthshakerButterflyEffect
BatriderTK
Timbersaw生死
Shadow DemonUndyne_
MiranaCatYou
50% · 125 games
DisruptorRedPanda
Game 2prediction missed7:26
Hong shi zhang zui 56%Roar Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on Hong shi zhang zui — the game was taken by Roar Gaming in 44:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LycanBEYOND
LeshracButterflyEffect
Troll Warlordlou
AbaddonUlu
HoodwinkTK
Mars生死
WarlockUndyne_
SilencerRedPanda
53% · 177 games
TuskCatYou
Model check result
Model favoriteHong shi zhang zui · 64%
Series resultRoar Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2