Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionHHorizonloss 0:2
series probability
12%88%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Horizon
No games played over 6 months.
BOOM Esports
Tusk
xNova · 13 games
Death Prophetsignature
Fbz · 8 games
Snapfiresignature
xNova · 8 games
Disruptor
xNova · 7 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Yopaj · 7 games
Mirana
Xepher · 7 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Natsumi · 7 games
Rubick
Xepher · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1005 picks · 698 bans
Tiny
652 picks · 480 bans
Nature's Prophet
597 picks · 949 bans
Tusk
543 picks · 432 bans
Disruptor
537 picks · 397 bans
Snapfire
533 picks · 368 bans
Death Prophet
515 picks · 1201 bans
Clockwerk
505 picks · 380 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 64%
Hero pool strength52% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:28
Horizon 12%BOOM Esports 88%
The model gave 88% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 20:23.
Game 2prediction correct36:11
Horizon 12%BOOM Esports 88%
The model gave 88% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 27:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 88%
Series resultBOOM Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2