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European Pro League Season 21 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydraloss 0:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Dragon Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hydra

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
ani-san · 7 games
57%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 7 games
43%
Underlord
Underlord
Actor · 7 games
29%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Actor · 5 games
40%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ethereal · 5 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
ani-san · 5 games
20%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Ethereal · 4 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
ani-san · 4 games
50%

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
dualrazee · 28 games
54%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lil pleb · 23 games
35%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 22 games
59%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Mary_y · 21 game
48%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
paw · 17 games
65%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
lil pleb · 16 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Infernal · 15 games
53%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 14 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
500 picks · 682 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
424 picks · 484 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
372 picks · 539 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
357 picks · 457 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
345 picks · 178 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
327 picks · 455 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
322 picks · 649 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
315 picks · 321 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 59%
Hero pool strength52% Dragon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total60% Dragon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:31
Hydra 43%Dragon Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 40:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painselfhate
48% · 40 games44% · 26 games
Spectrelil pleb
Spectre
Magnus
MagnusActor
54% · 105 games46% · 89 games
Monkey Kingdualrazee
Monkey King
Lion
LionAstral
46% · 144 games51% · 58 games
DawnbreakerInfernal
Dawnbreaker
59% · 29 games
Nyx Assassinxsvampire
Nyx Assassin
54% · 87 games
PugnaMary_y
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct28:55
Hydra 43%Dragon Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 44:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
Invokerselfhate
46% · 136 games48% · 99 games
Templar Assassinlil pleb
Templar Assassin
Primal Beast
Primal BeastActor
49% · 179 games57% · 96 games
Earth Spiritdualrazee
Earth Spirit
Lion
LionAstral
50% · 216 games54% · 125 games
MagnusInfernal
Magnus
54% · 107 games
Muertaxsvampire
Muerta
47% · 104 games
PugnaMary_y
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteDragon Esports · 60%
Series resultDragon Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2