The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
UpStarsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hydra
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
DkFogas · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
hina · 3 games
Enchantressoften banned
JANTER · 2 games
Rubick
xsvampire · 2 games
Abaddon
kur0patbI4 · 1 game
Alchemistoften banned
Retsu · 1 game
Anti-Mageoften banned
krylat · 1 game
Batrideroften banned
JANTER · 1 game
UpStars
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
487 picks · 224 bans
Tiny
449 picks · 704 bans
Centaur Warrunner
434 picks · 616 bans
Gyrocopter
428 picks · 393 bans
Batrider
411 picks · 753 bans
Rubick
387 picks · 161 bans
Pangolier
355 picks · 749 bans
Dragon Knight
352 picks · 1043 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% UpStars
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:11
Hydra 69%UpStars 31%
The model gave 69% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 34:26.
Game 2prediction correct
Hydra 69%UpStars 31%
The model gave 69% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra.
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 69%
Series resultHydra 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2