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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
iG Vitalityloss 1:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Phoenix Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

iG Vitality

Io
Iooften banned
Dogf1ghts · 9 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Dogf1ghts · 7 games
14%
Lina
Linaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
17%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
ukiyo · 6 games
33%
Bane
Bane
QYQX · 5 games
60%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QYQX · 5 games
20%
Puck
Puckoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
20%
Razor
Razoroften banned
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
40%

Phoenix Gaming

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Shining · 8 games
13%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Shining · 7 games
29%
Bane
Bane
Lwwnb · 6 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
zone- · 6 games
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Helios · 4 games
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Helios · 4 games
25%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
zone- · 4 games
25%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Helios · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
447 picks · 267 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
373 picks · 500 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
369 picks · 518 bans
54%
Weaver
Weaver
350 picks · 482 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
284 picks · 435 bans
55%
Kunkka
Kunkka
283 picks · 499 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
263 picks · 183 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
262 picks · 312 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 15%
Hero pool strength58% iG Vitality
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% iG Vitality
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct4:18
iG Vitality 50%Phoenix Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Phoenix Gaming — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 28:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursaukiyo
60% · 71 game43% · 251 game
Storm Spiritzone-
Storm Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
47% · 153 games46% · 116 games
Legion CommanderShining
Legion Commander
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightcsj
50% · 114 games60% · 61 game
Keeper of the LightHelios
Keeper of the Light
Weaver
WeaverDogf1ghts
51% · 122 games52% · 193 games
AbaddonLwwnb
Abaddon
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeQYQX
46% · 161 game
Game 2prediction correct30:7
iG Vitality 53%Phoenix Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on iG Vitality — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 25:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusaukiyo
45% · 178 games56% · 199 games
Dragon Knightzone-
Dragon Knight
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainButterflyEffect
46% · 163 games48% · 383 games
TidehunterShining
Tidehunter
Mars
Marscsj
52% · 386 games48% · 382 games
GrimstrokeHelios
Grimstroke
Mirana
MiranaDogf1ghts
51% · 160 games49% · 180 games
Treant ProtectorLwwnb
Treant Protector
Bane
BaneQYQX
53% · 257 games
Game 3prediction correct16:37
iG Vitality 50%Phoenix Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Phoenix Gaming — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 39:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
46% · 196 games41% · 131 game
Doomzone-
Doom
Tiny
Tinyukiyo
56% · 173 games48% · 461 game
MarsShining
Mars
Night Stalker
Night Stalkercsj
48% · 101 game54% · 89 games
Keeper of the LightHelios
Keeper of the Light
Weaver
WeaverQYQX
52% · 179 games51% · 178 games
AbaddonLwwnb
Abaddon
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinDogf1ghts
52% · 210 games
Model check result
Model favoriteiG Vitality · 52%
Series resultPhoenix Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3