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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
iG Vitalityloss 0:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Sparking Arrow Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

iG Vitality

Io
Iosignature
Dogf1ghts · 8 games
63%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Dogf1ghts · 8 games
13%
Lina
Linaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
14%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
ukiyo · 7 games
43%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QYQX · 5 games
20%
Puck
Puckoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
20%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
40%
Bane
Bane
QYQX · 4 games
75%

Sparking Arrow Gaming

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
XCJ · 7 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Son GoKu · 7 games
57%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Flyby · 5 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
XCJ · 5 games
60%
Razor
Razoroften banned
MS · 5 games
80%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Son GoKu · 5 games
20%
Bane
Bane
XCJ · 4 games
50%
Io
Iooften banned
Son GoKu · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
464 picks · 310 bans
56%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
426 picks · 528 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
377 picks · 563 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
368 picks · 512 bans
52%
Kunkka
Kunkka
297 picks · 494 bans
52%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
279 picks · 518 bans
51%
Wraith King
Wraith King
257 picks · 344 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
253 picks · 116 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 40%
Hero pool strength57% Sparking Arrow Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% iG Vitality
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:27
iG Vitality 50%Sparking Arrow Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Sparking Arrow Gaming — the game was taken by Sparking Arrow Gaming in 34:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinyukiyo
54% · 140 games50% · 126 games
LifestealerGhost
Lifestealer
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
49% · 135 games48% · 222 games
Kunkkaphoenix
Kunkka
Razor
Razorcsj
49% · 87 games47% · 80 games
Shadow ShamanSon GoKu
Shadow Shaman
Pangolier
PangolierDogf1ghts
52% · 82 games51% · 170 games
Ancient ApparitionXCJ
Ancient Apparition
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeQYQX
49% · 154 games
Game 2prediction missed8:28
iG Vitality 52%Sparking Arrow Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on iG Vitality — the game was taken by Sparking Arrow Gaming in 23:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith Kingukiyo
49% · 164 games47% · 241 game
KunkkaGhost
Kunkka
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritButterflyEffect
40% · 140 games48% · 114 games
Dragon Knightphoenix
Dragon Knight
Legion Commander
Legion Commandercsj
48% · 69 games58% · 180 games
MiranaSon GoKu
Mirana
Io
IoDogf1ghts
47% · 127 games53% · 121 game
Ancient ApparitionXCJ
Ancient Apparition
Bane
BaneQYQX
58% · 156 games
Model check result
Model favoriteiG Vitality · 50%
Series resultSparking Arrow Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2