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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
iG Vitalityloss 1:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Disillusionwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

iG Vitality

Jakiro
Jakiro
Sj · 11 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Tzy · 9 games
78%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ash · 9 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
ukiyo · 9 games
33%
Silencer
Silencer
Ponyo · 9 games
33%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 9 games
56%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Hara · 9 games
44%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Drink · 8 games
38%

Team Disillusion

Rubick
Rubick
Eren · 15 games
33%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Killa · 11 games
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Killa · 5 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Killa · 4 games
75%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Eren · 4 games
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Killa · 3 games
33%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Eren · 3 games
67%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Eren · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
698 picks · 487 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
572 picks · 616 bans
55%
Doom
Doom
565 picks · 1096 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
556 picks · 503 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
533 picks · 1221 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
469 picks · 1039 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
461 picks · 674 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
459 picks · 916 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 44%
Hero pool strength53% iG Vitality
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% Team Disillusion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:25
iG Vitality 46%Team Disillusion 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Disillusion — the game was taken by Team Disillusion in 33:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingukiyo
49% · 63 games55% · 285 games
DisruptorEren
Disruptor
Puck
PuckButterflyEffect
37% · 55 games
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderTzy
48% · 21 game
Pugna
PugnaHara
56% · 32 games
Undying
UndyingPonyo
37% · 114 games
Game 2prediction missed39:13
iG Vitality 47%Team Disillusion 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Disillusion — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 27:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaButterflyEffect
67% · 14 games44% · 204 games
Spirit BreakerEren
Spirit Breaker
Morphling
Morphlingukiyo
50% · 44 games
Magnus
MagnusTzy
50% · 64 games
Techies
TechiesHara
54% · 61 game
Lich
LichPonyo
60% · 21 game
Game 3prediction correct28:30
iG Vitality 49%Team Disillusion 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Disillusion — the game was taken by Team Disillusion in 38:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
Slarkukiyo
61% · 40 games47% · 393 games
EnchantressEren
Enchantress
Doom
DoomTzy
52% · 94 games
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
49% · 85 games
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerHara
53% · 28 games
Rubick
RubickPonyo
51% · 146 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Disillusion · 53%
Series resultTeam Disillusion 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3