Ignite vs Eagle — prediction EOKL2ОК · Dota 2

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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

IIgniteloss 1:2

series probability

56%44%

probability at match start · final 1:2

Eaglewin 2:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ignite

No games played over 6 months.

Eagle

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Vengeful Spirit

215 picks · 271 bans

52%

Pangolier

180 picks · 382 bans

54%

Grimstroke

178 picks · 169 bans

53%

Sven

170 picks · 247 bans

57%

Dark Willow

168 picks · 70 bans

52%

Earthshaker

166 picks · 165 bans

59%

Earth Spirit

150 picks · 238 bans

47%

Phoenix

148 picks · 193 bans

47%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength50% Ignite

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total56% Ignite

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct28:9

Ignite 51%Eagle 49%

The model gave 51% on Ignite — the game was taken by Ignite in 34:30.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo