?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
IHC Esportswin 2:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SPAWN Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

IHC Esports

Rubick
Rubick
ace12 · 10 games
40%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Se · 9 games
78%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
423 · 8 games
88%
Tusk
Tusksignature
ace12 · 8 games
63%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
ace12 · 7 games
29%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 6 games
33%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
423 · 5 games
80%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
423 · 5 games
20%

SPAWN Team

Rubick
Rubick
TraVins · 18 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
dalul · 17 games
41%
Tiny
Tiny
dalul · 14 games
36%
Mirana
Miranasignature
TraVins · 13 games
77%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Jikroy · 12 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
MamangDaya · 12 games
58%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Red · 10 games
40%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Jikroy · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
686 picks · 477 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
608 picks · 640 bans
55%
Doom
Doom
567 picks · 1109 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
522 picks · 493 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
517 picks · 1231 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
482 picks · 1047 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
460 picks · 678 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
450 picks · 916 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% IHC Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total58% IHC Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:14
IHC Esports 56%SPAWN Team 44%
The model gave 56% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by IHC Esports in 38:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemist423
50% · 129 games48% · 185 games
TerrorbladeJikroy
Terrorblade
Morphling
MorphlingSancity
53% · 285 games49% · 250 games
BatriderMamangDaya
Batrider
Primal Beast
Primal Beasteleven
48% · 264 games48% · 104 games
BroodmotherwoMy
Broodmother
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerace12
51% · 204 games54% · 205 games
Techiesdalul
Techies
Oracle
OracleSe
47% · 107 games50% · 245 games
ClockwerkTraVins
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct30:10
IHC Esports 55%SPAWN Team 45%
The model gave 55% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by IHC Esports in 36:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphling423
50% · 305 games47% · 58 games
Anti-MageJikroy
Anti-Mage
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSancity
52% · 429 games54% · 383 games
PangolierMamangDaya
Pangolier
Mars
Marseleven
46% · 179 games49% · 292 games
SnapfirewoMy
Snapfire
Techies
Techiesace12
49% · 288 games49% · 200 games
Spirit Breakerdalul
Spirit Breaker
Oracle
OracleSe
53% · 119 games50% · 387 games
BatriderTraVins
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteIHC Esports · 58%
Series resultIHC Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2