The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
IHC Esportsloss 0:1series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
IHC Esports
Rubick
ace12 · 12 games
Miranasignature
Se · 9 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
423 · 8 games
Skywrath Mage
Se · 8 games
Tusksignature
ace12 · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 7 games
Morphlingoften banned
Sancity · 7 games
Enchantressoften banned
Se · 6 games
Vision
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
478 picks · 514 bans
Rubick
450 picks · 214 bans
Batrider
403 picks · 670 bans
Ember Spirit
364 picks · 616 bans
Morphling
335 picks · 710 bans
Timbersaw
332 picks · 770 bans
Spirit Breaker
318 picks · 327 bans
Undying
316 picks · 521 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 31%
Hero pool strength53% IHC Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total78% IHC Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
IHC Esports 78%Vision 22%
The model gave 78% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by Vision.
Model check result
Model favoriteIHC Esports · 78%
Series resultVision 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1