The International 2026. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Ilbirs eSportswin 1:0series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 1:0
DDarkfireloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ilbirs eSports
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 8 games
Marsoften banned
Norma · 7 games
Void Spirit
niche · 7 games
Windranger
Ponlo · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
egx · 6 games
Underlordoften banned
Norma · 6 games
Doomoften banned
Nefrit · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 5 games
Darkfire
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
623 picks · 408 bans
Rubick
529 picks · 296 bans
Phoenix
482 picks · 583 bans
Tiny
466 picks · 391 bans
Pangolier
427 picks · 611 bans
Puck
346 picks · 984 bans
Tusk
342 picks · 289 bans
Ember Spirit
335 picks · 515 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Darkfire
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Ilbirs eSports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:33
Ilbirs eSports 77%Darkfire 23%
The model gave 77% on Ilbirs eSports — the game was taken by Ilbirs eSports in 23:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteIlbirs eSports · 77%
Series resultIlbirs eSports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1