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EPL Masters I · BO3
result vs prediction
Ilbirs eSportsloss 0:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Rune Eaterswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ilbirs eSports

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ponlo · 16 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
niche · 11 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
egx · 10 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 10 games
40%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Zayac · 9 games
44%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Kami · 8 games
75%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Nefrit · 8 games
25%
Tiny
Tinysignature
chempik · 8 games
63%

Rune Eaters

Tusk
Tusk
ani-san · 21 game
43%
Windranger
Windranger
yowaai · 18 games
39%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ani-san · 17 games
47%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 17 games
41%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
ani-san · 17 games
47%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ankou · 16 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfireoften banned
Malik · 16 games
38%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Kidaro · 15 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
496 picks · 362 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
361 picks · 646 bans
54%
Bane
Bane
343 picks · 387 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
339 picks · 193 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
316 picks · 346 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
314 picks · 451 bans
56%
Windranger
Windranger
307 picks · 231 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
302 picks · 326 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 43%
Hero pool strength52% Ilbirs eSports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total71% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:43
Ilbirs eSports 41%Rune Eaters 59%
The model gave 59% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 47:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawNorma
47% · 98 games55% · 73 games
Dark SeerMalik
Dark Seer
Lina
Linaniche
57% · 45 games51% · 171 game
Kezrincyq
Kez
Tiny
Tiny423
44% · 226 games53% · 118 games
Earth SpiritCopy
Earth Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark WillowFernans
44% · 121 game49% · 86 games
Miranaaik
Mirana
Undying
UndyingPonlo
53% · 95 games51% · 137 games
Nature's ProphetEkki
Nature's Prophet
Game 2prediction correct11:35
Ilbirs eSports 37%Rune Eaters 63%
The model gave 63% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 31:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealer423
57% · 158 games51% · 300 games
PuckCopy
Puck
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNorma
48% · 517 games46% · 252 games
Tinyrincyq
Tiny
Earthshaker
Earthshakerniche
51% · 165 games47% · 141 game
LargoMalik
Largo
Lich
LichPonlo
54% · 146 games46% · 173 games
Ringmasteraik
Ringmaster
Lion
LionFernans
51% · 270 games48% · 390 games
HoodwinkEkki
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 71%
Series resultRune Eaters 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2