EPL Masters I · BO3
result vs prediction
Ilbirs eSportswin 2:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TSTeam Syntaxloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ilbirs eSports
Hoodwinksignature
Ponlo · 13 games
Beastmastersignature
egx · 10 games
Ember Spiritsignature
niche · 9 games
Alchemistsignature
Kami · 8 games
Dark Willow
Zayac · 8 games
Doomoften banned
Nefrit · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 8 games
Tinysignature
chempik · 8 games
Team Syntax
Tusksignature
Stoic · 8 games
Axeoften banned
emptiness · 5 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Jeezy · 4 games
Dark Seeroften banned
emptiness · 4 games
Largooften banned
Jeezy · 4 games
Baneoften banned
Stoic · 3 games
Phoenix
Jeezy · 3 games
Snapfireoften banned
emptiness · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
503 picks · 364 bans
Clockwerk
365 picks · 654 bans
Rubick
353 picks · 197 bans
Bane
333 picks · 374 bans
Tiny
321 picks · 349 bans
Ember Spirit
312 picks · 451 bans
Windranger
311 picks · 232 bans
Storm Spirit
297 picks · 333 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 69%
Hero pool strength55% Team Syntax
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Team Syntax
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:12
Ilbirs eSports 44%Team Syntax 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Syntax — the game was taken by Ilbirs eSports in 41:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet423
Largoemptiness
Centaur WarrunnerNorma
HoodwinkJeezy
Earth Spiritniche
ClockwerkStoic
WindrangerFernans
Winter WyvernPonlo
Game 2prediction missed37:23
Ilbirs eSports 48%Team Syntax 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Syntax — the game was taken by Ilbirs eSports in 49:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna423
Dawnbreakeremptiness
Earth Spiritniche
MiranaJeezy
Centaur WarrunnerNorma
BaneStoic
HoodwinkFernans
SilencerPonlo
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Syntax · 54%
Series resultIlbirs eSports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2