ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs predictionIILOVESABRINAwin 1:0
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Cchotrloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ILOVESABRINA
Shadow Demon
ArrOw · 1 game
Tiny
ArrOw · 1 game
chotr
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 430 bans
Phoenix
272 picks · 405 bans
Grimstroke
260 picks · 441 bans
Tusk
227 picks · 206 bans
Nature's Prophet
225 picks · 631 bans
Lion
224 picks · 201 bans
Vengeful Spirit
220 picks · 111 bans
Pangolier
214 picks · 308 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% chotr
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% ILOVESABRINA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:34
ILOVESABRINA 65%chotr 35%
The model gave 65% on ILOVESABRINA — the game was taken by ILOVESABRINA in 34:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteILOVESABRINA · 65%
Series resultILOVESABRINA 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1