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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Incubus Clubloss 1:2
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Latam Defenderswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Incubus Club

Pangolier
Pangolier
mini-` · 2 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
mini-` · 1 game
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Nuages · 1 game
100%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Benny · 1 game
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Nuages · 1 game
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Jupiter · 1 game
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
mini-` · 1 game
100%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Jupiter · 1 game
100%

Latam Defenders

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Aretes · 2 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Valquiria · 2 games
0%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Moonlight · 1 game
100%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Cucahook · 1 game
100%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Valquiria · 1 game
100%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Moonlight · 1 game
0%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Aretes · 1 game
0%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Cucahook · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
25 picks · 54 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
25 picks · 60 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
25 picks · 35 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
21 picks · 16 bans
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
18 picks · 19 bans
68%
Monkey King
Monkey King
18 picks · 31 bans
55%
Undying
Undying
18 picks · 32 bans
45%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
16 picks · 31 bans
65%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 36%
Hero pool strength54% Incubus Club
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total60% Incubus Club
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:18
Incubus Club 59%Latam Defenders 41%
The model gave 59% on Incubus Club — the game was taken by Incubus Club in 32:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingBenny
little datalittle data
Wraith KingCucahook
Wraith King
Puck
Puckmini-`
71% · 3 gameslittle data
TimbersawValquiria
Timbersaw
Underlord
UnderlordJupiter
little datalittle data
MiranaMoonlight
Mirana
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritNuages
little data29% · 3 games
Crystal MaidenAretes
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed12:28
Incubus Club 57%Latam Defenders 43%
The model gave 57% on Incubus Club — the game was taken by Latam Defenders in 32:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingBenny
little datalittle data
JuggernautCucahook
Juggernaut
Leshrac
Leshracmini-`
little datalittle data
EnigmaValquiria
Enigma
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetJupiter
71% · 3 gameslittle data
RubickMoonlight
Rubick
Omniknight
OmniknightNuages
little data29% · 3 games
UndyingAretes
Undying
Game 3prediction missed19:36
Incubus Club 54%Latam Defenders 46%
The model gave 54% on Incubus Club — the game was taken by Latam Defenders in 28:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinBenny
little datalittle data
WeaverCucahook
Weaver
Monkey King
Monkey Kingmini-`
little datalittle data
BatriderValquiria
Batrider
Mars
MarsJupiter
44% · 5 games38% · 4 games
Earth SpiritMoonlight
Earth Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightNuages
63% · 4 games56% · 5 games
UndyingAretes
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteIncubus Club · 60%
Series resultLatam Defenders 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3