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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Incubus Clubloss 1:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Omega Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Incubus Club

Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Aretes · 8 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Jupiter · 7 games
29%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
BlackSoul · 6 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Aretes · 6 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Benny · 6 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Nuages · 6 games
83%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Benjaz · 5 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Jupiter · 5 games
40%

Omega Gaming

Tusk
Tusk
Zxca · 7 games
57%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
Mingatte · 4 games
25%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Jeimari · 4 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Jeimari · 4 games
75%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Mingatte · 4 games
75%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Mingatte · 3 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Zxca · 3 games
67%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Jeimari · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
406 picks · 1015 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
370 picks · 597 bans
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
352 picks · 359 bans
48%
Lion
Lion
352 picks · 184 bans
46%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
333 picks · 520 bans
48%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
321 picks · 702 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
309 picks · 226 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
257 picks · 289 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Incubus Club
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Incubus Club
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:34
Incubus Club 51%Omega Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Incubus Club — the game was taken by Omega Gaming in 45:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreBerna
59% · 16 games56% · 165 games
Wraith KingMingatte
Wraith King
Void Spirit
Void SpiritBlackSoul
50% · 126 games46% · 60 games
LinaJeimari
Lina
Mars
MarsBenjaz
49% · 146 games51% · 182 games
Earth SpiritDemon
Earth Spirit
Rubick
Rubicksl4d1n-
50% · 68 games
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorAretes
43% · 51 game
Game 2prediction correct35:16
Incubus Club 52%Omega Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Incubus Club — the game was taken by Incubus Club in 26:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaBerna
27% · 14 games50% · 76 games
UrsaMingatte
Ursa
Batrider
BatriderBlackSoul
47% · 17 games42% · 84 games
LeshracJeimari
Leshrac
Timbersaw
TimbersawBenjaz
62% · 37 games53% · 31 game
Shadow DemonDemon
Shadow Demon
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsl4d1n-
61% · 50 games
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeAretes
49% · 73 games
Game 3prediction missed35:30
Incubus Club 54%Omega Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Incubus Club — the game was taken by Omega Gaming in 39:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerBerna
47% · 24 games57% · 86 games
Wraith KingMingatte
Wraith King
Timbersaw
TimbersawBenjaz
60% · 56 games48% · 69 games
LeshracJeimari
Leshrac
Earthshaker
Earthshakersl4d1n-
52% · 49 games42% · 129 games
Earth SpiritDemon
Earth Spirit
Batrider
BatriderBlackSoul
54% · 43 games
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeAretes
42% · 112 games
Model check result
Model favoriteIncubus Club · 55%
Series resultOmega Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3