Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Infamouswin 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hokoriloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infamous
Bane
Prada · 11 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
PiPi · 11 games
Marssignature
Mariano · 8 games
Rubicksignature
Genek · 6 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Lumière · 6 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Genek · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
PiPi · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
PiPi · 5 games
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
591 picks · 457 bans
Mars
418 picks · 643 bans
Puck
407 picks · 860 bans
Dragon Knight
391 picks · 512 bans
Bane
370 picks · 250 bans
Snapfire
339 picks · 167 bans
Ember Spirit
331 picks · 620 bans
Pangolier
310 picks · 535 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 35%
Hero pool strength50% Infamous
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total55% Infamous
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:13
Infamous 55%Hokori 45%
The model gave 55% on Infamous — the game was taken by Hokori in 32:34.
Game 2prediction missed21:17
Infamous 55%Hokori 45%
The model gave 55% on Infamous — the game was taken by Hokori in 34:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteInfamous · 55%
Series resultInfamous 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2