The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO5
result vs prediction
Infamousloss 0:3series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:3
Hokoriwin 3:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infamous
Bane
Prada · 11 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
PiPi · 11 games
Marsoften banned
Mariano · 8 games
Rubick
Genek · 7 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Mariano · 6 games
Tidehunter
Mariano · 6 games
Tiny
Rises · 6 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
PiPi · 5 games
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
731 picks · 571 bans
Puck
506 picks · 1024 bans
Dawnbreaker
485 picks · 645 bans
Marci
461 picks · 807 bans
Winter Wyvern
376 picks · 419 bans
Snapfire
334 picks · 164 bans
Zeus
329 picks · 391 bans
Razor
304 picks · 585 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 52%
Hero pool strength52% Hokori
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total51% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:22
Infamous 49%Hokori 51%
The model gave 51% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori in 45:52.
Game 2prediction correct32:16
Infamous 49%Hokori 51%
The model gave 51% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori in 40:37.
Game 3prediction correct33:30
Infamous 49%Hokori 51%
The model gave 51% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori in 52:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 51%
Series resultHokori 0:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3