Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Infamousloss 0:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hokoriwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infamous
Miranasignature
Nuages · 26 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Nuages · 20 games
Rubick
Jupiter · 12 games
Skywrath Mage
Jupiter · 12 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Hyko · 10 games
Pangolieroften banned
Mr.Jeans · 9 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
mini-` · 9 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mr.Jeans · 8 games
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
713 picks · 606 bans
Disruptor
583 picks · 507 bans
Beastmaster
484 picks · 1196 bans
Doom
481 picks · 911 bans
Ember Spirit
429 picks · 1086 bans
Pangolier
415 picks · 871 bans
Mirana
406 picks · 218 bans
Enchantress
400 picks · 575 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Infamous
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total71% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:31
Infamous 29%Hokori 71%
The model gave 71% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori in 45:37.
Game 2prediction correct18:31
Infamous 29%Hokori 71%
The model gave 71% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori in 33:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 71%
Series resultHokori 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2