PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Infamousloss 0:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Mmotiswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infamous
Beastmasteroften banned
Hermit · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
S1RENM · 5 games
Ogre Magi
JimmyCoff666 · 4 games
Queen of Painoften banned
S1RENM · 4 games
Clockwerkoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 3 games
Linaoften banned
S1RENM · 3 games
Tinyoften banned
S1RENM · 3 games
Weaver
DM · 3 games
motis
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
452 picks · 369 bans
Clockwerk
421 picks · 544 bans
Batrider
372 picks · 473 bans
Lion
367 picks · 192 bans
Gyrocopter
360 picks · 578 bans
Phoenix
355 picks · 392 bans
Pangolier
354 picks · 585 bans
Beastmaster
341 picks · 848 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 43%
Hero pool strength53% motis
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total58% Infamous
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Infamous 58%motis 42%
The model gave 58% on Infamous — the game was taken by motis.
Game 2prediction missed
Infamous 58%motis 42%
The model gave 58% on Infamous — the game was taken by motis.
Model check result
Model favoriteInfamous · 58%
Series resultmotis 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2