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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Infamouswin 2:0
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Omega Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Infamous

Tusk
Tusksignature
Pamplona · 13 games
62%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
ILICH- · 11 games
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Yor · 10 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ILICH- · 9 games
44%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
PiPi · 7 games
57%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Pamplona · 6 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Yor · 6 games
67%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
PiPi · 6 games
50%

Omega Gaming

Tusk
Tusk
Zxca · 7 games
57%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Jeimari · 6 games
67%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Mingatte · 6 games
83%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
Mingatte · 4 games
25%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Demon · 4 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Jeimari · 4 games
50%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Jeimari · 4 games
100%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Mingatte · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
447 picks · 194 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
391 picks · 580 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
390 picks · 883 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
371 picks · 206 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
345 picks · 323 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
324 picks · 235 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
292 picks · 395 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
288 picks · 397 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Omega Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Infamous
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed5:26
Infamous 55%Omega Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Infamous — the game was taken by Omega Gaming in 20:33.
Game 2prediction missed14:28
Infamous 55%Omega Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Infamous — the game was taken by Omega Gaming in 33:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteInfamous · 55%
Series resultInfamous 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2