Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Infinity Esportsloss 0:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
EgoBoyswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infinity Esports
No games played over 6 months.
EgoBoys
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
28 picks · 63 bans
Mars
27 picks · 56 bans
Earth Spirit
25 picks · 16 bans
Void Spirit
25 picks · 38 bans
Undying
21 picks · 34 bans
Monkey King
20 picks · 36 bans
Batrider
18 picks · 74 bans
Ember Spirit
18 picks · 19 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 45%
Hero pool strength50% Infinity Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% EgoBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:32
Infinity Esports 48%EgoBoys 52%
The model gave 52% on EgoBoys — the game was taken by EgoBoys in 51:09.
Game 2prediction correct11:35
Infinity Esports 48%EgoBoys 52%
The model gave 52% on EgoBoys — the game was taken by EgoBoys in 31:20.
Model check result
Model favoriteEgoBoys · 52%
Series resultEgoBoys 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2