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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Infinity Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Mad Kingswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Infinity Esports

Rubick
Rubick
Kiri · 14 games
43%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Frank · 10 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Prada · 7 games
57%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Frank · 7 games
43%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Kiri · 7 games
57%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Prada · 6 games
67%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Adrx · 6 games
33%
Tiny
Tiny
Kiri · 6 games
50%

Mad Kings

Disruptor
Disruptor
Gardick · 21 game
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
PiPi · 12 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Vitaly · 11 games
64%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Elmisho · 10 games
60%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
DaaD- · 10 games
70%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Genek · 10 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Vitaly · 9 games
78%
Rubick
Rubick
Genek · 9 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
495 picks · 528 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
447 picks · 225 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
405 picks · 686 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
362 picks · 625 bans
49%
Morphling
Morphling
337 picks · 710 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
332 picks · 779 bans
49%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
326 picks · 337 bans
48%
Undying
Undying
319 picks · 520 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 44%
Hero pool strength54% Mad Kings
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total53% Mad Kings
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:12
Infinity Esports 47%Mad Kings 53%
The model gave 53% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 41:35.
Game 2prediction correct37:31
Infinity Esports 47%Mad Kings 53%
The model gave 53% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 43:45.
Game 3prediction correct22:9
Infinity Esports 47%Mad Kings 53%
The model gave 53% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 30:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteMad Kings · 53%
Series resultMad Kings 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3