Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Infinity Esportsloss 0:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SG e-sportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infinity Esports
Elder Titan
Nuages · 5 games
Mirana
Jupiter · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
mini-` · 3 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
Benny · 3 games
Snapfire
Jupiter · 3 games
Luna
Benny · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
Jupiter · 2 games
Puckoften banned
mini-` · 2 games
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
421 picks · 947 bans
Void Spirit
384 picks · 543 bans
Death Prophet
344 picks · 713 bans
Mars
326 picks · 558 bans
Grimstroke
313 picks · 303 bans
Tusk
296 picks · 214 bans
Earth Spirit
278 picks · 281 bans
Lion
272 picks · 151 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 33%
Hero pool strength55% Infinity Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Infinity Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:16
Infinity Esports 62%SG e-sports 38%
The model gave 62% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 34:20.
Game 2prediction missed15:43
Infinity Esports 62%SG e-sports 38%
The model gave 62% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 33:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteInfinity Esports · 62%
Series resultSG e-sports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2