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European Pro League Season 37 · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circlewin 2:0
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ALIS VENTORUSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Inner Circle

Warlock
Warlock
Se · 22 games
41%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 20 games
55%
Tiny
Tiny
Jing · 20 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Daze · 19 games
42%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Se · 17 games
41%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Supream^ · 16 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 15 games
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
niche · 15 games
47%

ALIS VENTORUS

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
waveformn · 11 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Delight · 7 games
29%
Luna
Luna
paw · 6 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Norma · 6 games
50%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
Panda · 5 games
80%
Rubick
Rubick
waveformn · 5 games
0%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 4 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Delight · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
532 picks · 433 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
475 picks · 246 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
475 picks · 530 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
468 picks · 366 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
424 picks · 365 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
358 picks · 804 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
354 picks · 870 bans
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
351 picks · 882 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 40%
Hero pool strength52% ALIS VENTORUS
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total65% Inner Circle
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Inner Circle 65%ALIS VENTORUS 35%
The model gave 65% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Inner Circle.
Game 2prediction correct
Inner Circle 65%ALIS VENTORUS 35%
The model gave 65% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Inner Circle.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 65%
Series resultInner Circle 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2