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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circleloss 0:2
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Kalmychatawin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Inner Circle

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 15 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 12 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 12 games
25%
Tusk
Tusk
Fernans · 11 games
45%
Warlock
Warlock
flacko · 10 games
40%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Fernans · 9 games
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Fernans · 9 games
22%
Jakiro
Jakiro
flacko · 7 games
29%

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
609 picks · 300 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
528 picks · 529 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
390 picks · 1095 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
364 picks · 191 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
353 picks · 592 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
348 picks · 391 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
346 picks · 156 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
337 picks · 260 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 59%
Hero pool strength63% Kalmychata
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:45
Inner Circle 30%Kalmychata 70%
The model gave 70% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 53:55.
Game 2prediction correct12:27
Inner Circle 30%Kalmychata 70%
The model gave 70% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 32:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 70%
Series resultKalmychata 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2