DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circlewin 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TBthe bugloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Inner Circle
Hoodwink
Fernans · 15 games
Marsoften banned
Norma · 12 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 11 games
Tusk
Fernans · 10 games
Disruptoroften banned
Fernans · 9 games
Warlock
flacko · 9 games
Snapfire
Fernans · 8 games
Jakiro
flacko · 7 games
the bug
Gyrocopteroften banned
Boris · 4 games
Pugnaoften banned
empyrean5 · 4 games
Queen of Painoften banned
iAnnihilate · 4 games
Sven
Boris · 4 games
Warlock
empyrean5 · 4 games
Disruptoroften banned
empyrean5 · 3 games
Dragon Knight
iAnnihilate · 3 games
Earthshakeroften banned
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
594 picks · 296 bans
Disruptor
518 picks · 522 bans
Puck
389 picks · 1070 bans
Hoodwink
352 picks · 183 bans
Pugna
344 picks · 391 bans
Mars
343 picks · 586 bans
Warlock
343 picks · 156 bans
Tusk
334 picks · 253 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 38%
Hero pool strength51% the bug
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Inner Circle
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:17
Inner Circle 59%the bug 41%
The model gave 59% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 33:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernautyowaai
Anti-MageBoris
Storm SpiritPanda
Void SpiritGunnar
SlardarNorma
DawnbreakeriAnnihilate
Warlockflacko
SnapfireNewsham
TuskFernans
Jakiroempyrean5
Game 2prediction correct29:7
Inner Circle 58%the bug 42%
The model gave 58% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 28:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlordyowaai
JuggernautBoris
Dragon KnightPanda
PuckGunnar
Centaur WarrunnerNorma
DawnbreakeriAnnihilate
SnapfireFernans
HoodwinkNewsham
Skywrath Mageflacko
Phoenixempyrean5
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 69%
Series resultInner Circle 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2