Into The Breach vs Ghost frogs — prediction DPC2—ЗЕ · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3

result vs prediction

Into The Breachwin 2:0

series probability

58%42%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Ghost frogsloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Into The Breach

Snapfiresignature

Era · 9 games

78%

Marsoften banned

Xibbe · 8 games

50%

Medusasignature

Charlie · 8 games

75%

Linasignature

Bor@nija · 7 games

71%

Shadow Demonsignature

Era · 7 games

86%

Void Spirit

Bor@nija · 7 games

57%

Lion

Era · 6 games

33%

Puckoften banned

Supream^ · 6 games

33%

Ghost frogs

Storm Spiritoften banned

Mastermind · 4 games

25%

Chaos Knight

Ulnit · 3 games

67%

Razoroften banned

OwnedMe · 3 games

Treant Protector

j4 · 3 games

Bane

j4 · 2 games

Beastmasteroften banned

OwnedMe · 2 games

50%

Dark Willow

Nukkumatti · 2 games

Disruptor

j4 · 2 games

50%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Bane

413 picks · 295 bans

58%

Mars

386 picks · 559 bans

49%

Snapfire

315 picks · 175 bans

45%

Queen of Pain

305 picks · 363 bans

50%

Weaver

305 picks · 733 bans

56%

Kunkka

245 picks · 415 bans

57%

Ember Spirit

235 picks · 319 bans

54%

Disruptor

233 picks · 161 bans

49%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)33% vs 33%

Hero pool strength63% Into The Breach

Head-to-head0 – 1

Model total58% Into The Breach

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct33:26

Into The Breach 58%Ghost frogs 42%

The model gave 58% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 46:05.

Game 2prediction correct36:28

Into The Breach 58%Ghost frogs 42%

The model gave 58% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 33:50.

Model check result

Model favoriteInto The Breach · 58%

Series resultInto The Breach 2:0

Series predictioncorrect

Accuracy by game2 of 2