DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionIInvaderswin 2:0
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
WDWhite Dragonsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invaders
Dark Willow
Kiri · 4 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
PiPi · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
DaaD- · 2 games
Pugnaoften banned
PiPi · 2 games
Alchemist
DaaD- · 1 game
Bounty Hunter
555k · 1 game
Grimstrokeoften banned
555k · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
PiPi · 1 game
White Dragons
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
264 picks · 444 bans
Phoenix
241 picks · 384 bans
Centaur Warrunner
233 picks · 312 bans
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
Dark Willow
216 picks · 101 bans
Tusk
212 picks · 202 bans
Treant Protector
193 picks · 365 bans
Kunkka
190 picks · 521 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% White Dragons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Invaders
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:32
Invaders 54%White Dragons 46%
The model gave 54% on Invaders — the game was taken by White Dragons in 26:03.
Game 2prediction missed45:23
Invaders 54%White Dragons 46%
The model gave 54% on Invaders — the game was taken by White Dragons in 38:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvaders · 54%
Series resultInvaders 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2