The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingwin 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Allianceloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
298 picks · 178 bans
Mars
288 picks · 398 bans
Lina
281 picks · 549 bans
Pangolier
257 picks · 372 bans
Hoodwink
249 picks · 89 bans
Shadow Demon
248 picks · 257 bans
Tidehunter
235 picks · 397 bans
Luna
223 picks · 317 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 24%
Hero pool strength50% Invictus Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:23
Invictus Gaming 72%Alliance 28%
The model gave 72% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Alliance in 39:43.
Game 2prediction missed18:43
Invictus Gaming 72%Alliance 28%
The model gave 72% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Alliance in 35:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 72%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2