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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Holy Grailloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Invictus Gaming

No games played over 6 months.

Holy Grail

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 9 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
omoxiloyi · 7 games
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
57%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Tzy · 7 games
29%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Drink · 6 games
100%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
Sj · 6 games
83%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Drink · 6 games
83%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
607 picks · 642 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
471 picks · 261 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
426 picks · 855 bans
52%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
384 picks · 390 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
373 picks · 756 bans
48%
Doom
Doom
351 picks · 802 bans
54%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
347 picks · 859 bans
50%
Pugna
Pugna
344 picks · 397 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 73%
Hero pool strength53% Holy Grail
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:11
Invictus Gaming 58%Holy Grail 42%
The model gave 58% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Holy Grail in 37:48.
Game 2prediction missed15:19
Invictus Gaming 58%Holy Grail 42%
The model gave 58% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Holy Grail in 29:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 58%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2